Executive Summary
"Twenty-five million people came into our country... it's actually much higher than that."
Trump's claim is demonstrably false. Official CBP data shows approximately 10 million border encounters during Biden's term, but encounters are not the same as people entering and staying. Many were immediately expelled, turned back, or denied entry. The actual number who entered illegally is significantly lower, and Trump has inflated his previous exaggerations from "21 million" to now "25 million" with no factual basis.
The Numbers: Claim vs Reality
According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection data, there have been approximately 10 million border encounters from January 2021 through November 2024. However, encounters are not the same as people entering and staying in the country.
Understanding "Encounters"
A "border encounter" is counted when CBP apprehends or processes someone at the border. This includes individuals who are:
- Immediately expelled under Title 42 (COVID-era policy)
- Turned back at ports of entry
- Denied asylum and removed
- The same person attempting to cross multiple times (counted each time)
- Apprehended and detained pending removal proceedings
According to the Bipartisan Policy Center, only a fraction of encounters result in individuals entering and remaining in the U.S.
Border Encounters by Fiscal Year
The chart above shows annual border encounters. While encounters increased during Biden's presidency, particularly in 2023, the numbers have declined significantly in 2024 following new border security measures. According to Reuters, Trump has conflated different statistics and repeatedly inflated the numbers without basis.
Evolution of Trump's Exaggerations
Trump's immigration claims have escalated over time, with no supporting evidence:
Timeline of Inflating Numbers
- March 2024: Claimed "15 million" at campaign rally
- June 2024: Increased to "18 million" during debate
- July 2024: Escalated to "20 million" in interviews
- September 2024: Jumped to "21 million" without explanation
- December 2024: Now claims "25 million, actually much higher"
Each increase has no correlation with actual CBP data, which shows encounters totaling approximately 10 million, not 25 million.
What Fact-Checkers Say
Multiple independent fact-checking organizations have rated Trump's claims as false:
FactCheck.org: "Trump's claim that Biden has allowed 18 million, 19 million or 20 million immigrants into the country illegally is false. The actual number is far lower, and even the total number of border encounters—which includes people who were turned away—is about 10 million."
PolitiFact: "Trump's statement is inaccurate. The former president inflated the number dramatically and ignored that many people encountered at the border are expelled or turned away... We rate this claim False."
Washington Post Fact Checker: "Trump earned Four Pinocchios for his wildly inflated immigration numbers, which have no basis in official statistics."
The Cato Institute notes that encounters include people "expelled immediately under Title 42, denied entry at ports of entry, the same person trying multiple times, and those apprehended and detained." The actual number of people who successfully entered and remained illegally is estimated at 3-4 million, not 25 million.
How We Verified This Claim
Our verification process involved:
- Primary Source Review: Examined official CBP monthly data from January 2021 through November 2024
- Cross-Reference: Compared CBP data with DHS immigration statistics
- Expert Consultation: Reviewed analyses from Bipartisan Policy Center and Cato Institute
- Fact-Checker Consensus: Verified findings against FactCheck.org, PolitiFact, and Reuters Fact Check
- Historical Tracking: Documented Trump's escalating claims over time using archived statements
Bottom Line
Trump's claim that 25 million migrants entered the U.S. under Biden is demonstrably false. Official CBP data shows approximately 10 million border encounters, not 25 million. Furthermore, encounters are not the same as people entering and staying—many were immediately expelled or turned away. Independent fact-checkers from FactCheck.org, PolitiFact, and Reuters all rate this claim as false. Trump has repeatedly inflated this number without evidence, escalating from "15 million" to "25 million" over the course of 2024.