FALSE
The claim that South Africa has 15 million illegal or undocumented migrants has no evidentiary basis. Statistics SA says there is "no credible data" to support such figures. Census 2022 counted approximately 2.4 million foreign-born residents total. The 15 million figure appears to originate from unsourced political claims and has been repeatedly debunked by Africa Check and demographers.
The "15 million undocumented foreigners" claim has been a persistent fixture in South African political discourse, repeated by politicians including ActionSA leader Herman Mashaba and Operation Dudula activists. Despite its widespread use, no credible source supports this figure. The Statistician General has explicitly stated that no reliable data on undocumented migration exists. Census 2022 found the total foreign-born population (documented and undocumented) to be around 2.4 million - a fraction of the claimed 15 million. The inflated figure has been used to justify xenophobic violence and anti-immigrant policies.
Origin of the Claim
Africa Check traced the "15 million" figure but could find no original research or credible source [3]. The number appears to have emerged from political speeches and was amplified through repetition rather than evidence.
Some have confused the World Bank's finding that 15.3 million South Africans lack identity documents with claims about undocumented foreigners - a fundamental misreading of the data [9].
What Statistics SA Actually Says
Statistician General Risenga Maluleke has been explicit: "There is no data on undocumented migrants" in South Africa [5].
Census 2022 counted approximately 2.4 million foreign-born people in South Africa - including documented immigrants, refugees, and asylum seekers. This is the total, not just the undocumented subset [10].
Politicians Repeating the Claim
ActionSA leader Herman Mashaba has repeatedly cited the 15 million figure despite being fact-checked multiple times [1].
When challenged on sources, politicians citing this figure have been unable to provide credible evidence, instead pointing to each other's statements in circular fashion [4].
Academic Research
The Wits African Centre for Migration & Society has extensively studied South African migration patterns. Their research suggests the foreign-born population is between 3-5% of the total population - far below what the 15 million claim would imply [8].
Multiple peer-reviewed studies have concluded that anti-immigrant figures are routinely exaggerated in South African political discourse [16].
Real-World Consequences
Human Rights Watch has documented how inflated migration claims have fueled xenophobic violence, including attacks on businesses owned by foreign nationals [12].
Operation Dudula has used the 15 million figure to justify vigilante actions against perceived foreigners, sometimes targeting South African citizens [7].
Conclusion
The claim that South Africa hosts 15 million illegal migrants is demonstrably false. No credible evidence supports this figure. Official statistics, census data, and academic research all point to a foreign-born population that is a small fraction of this claimed number. The persistence of this false claim despite repeated debunking highlights how misinformation can be weaponized to justify harmful policies and violence.