VERDICT: FALSE
The viral "reciprocal tariff" chart displayed at the April 2, 2025 "Liberation Day" announcement contained fabricated numbers. The rates shown didn't match actual tariff data from any source - not WTO statistics, not bilateral trade agreements, not customs records. Economists determined the "foreign tariff rates" were invented using a simplistic formula that divided trade deficit by imports, which has no relationship to actual tariffs.
On April 2, 2025, President Trump unveiled a chart showing purported foreign tariff rates on US goods, claiming these justified "reciprocal" tariffs of the same amount. The chart claimed China charges 67%, the EU charges 39%, and Japan charges 46%. However, trade economists quickly determined these numbers were fabricated - calculated by dividing trade deficits by import values, a formula that produces a meaningless percentage unrelated to actual tariff rates. Real tariff data from the WTO shows significantly different (and mostly lower) rates.
The Chart's Claims
The White House chart, displayed during the April 2 announcement, purported to show tariff rates charged by other countries on US goods. Key claimed rates included: [1]
- China: 67%
- European Union: 39%
- Japan: 46%
- Vietnam: 90%
- India: 52%
These rates were used to justify "reciprocal" US tariffs at the same levels - claiming the US was simply matching what other countries charge. [2]
How the Numbers Were Actually Calculated
Trade economists at the Peterson Institute quickly reverse-engineered the chart and discovered the "tariff rates" weren't tariffs at all: [4]
"Tariff Rate" = (Trade Deficit with Country) / (US Imports from Country) x 100
This formula has nothing to do with tariffs. It simply calculates what percentage of imports the trade deficit represents. A country could charge zero tariffs and still produce a high "rate" under this formula if there's a trade imbalance.
What Actual Tariff Data Shows
The World Trade Organization publishes actual tariff data. The real average tariff rates are: [5]
| Country/Region | WH Chart Claim | Actual WTO Rate | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 67% | 7.5% | +59.5% overstated |
| European Union | 39% | 5.1% | +33.9% overstated |
| Japan | 46% | 4.2% | +41.8% overstated |
| Vietnam | 90% | 9.4% | +80.6% overstated |
| India | 52% | 17.1% | +34.9% overstated |
Why Trade Deficits Don't Indicate Tariffs
The fundamental problem with the White House formula is that trade deficits are caused by many factors beyond tariffs: [12]
- Currency values: A strong dollar makes US exports more expensive
- Comparative advantage: Countries specialize in different products
- Consumer preferences: Americans may prefer certain foreign goods
- Investment flows: Capital movements affect trade balances
- Economic growth rates: Faster-growing economies import more
The US runs a trade deficit with many countries that have low or zero tariffs, including Canada (under USMCA free trade). [8]
Expert Response
Trade economists across the political spectrum condemned the chart's methodology: [14]
- Tax Foundation: "The formula used has no basis in trade economics or tariff calculation"
- Peterson Institute: "This isn't just misleading - it's completely fabricated data"
- Yale Budget Lab: "The chart presents made-up numbers as if they were official tariff rates"
Actual reciprocal tariffs would require matching real tariff rates by product category. For example, the EU charges 10% on cars while the US charges 2.5%. True reciprocity would mean the US raising its car tariff to 10% - not to 39% based on a fabricated formula. [9]
White House Response
When pressed on the methodology, White House officials defended the chart by arguing it captured "total barriers" including non-tariff barriers. However, no methodology was provided for how non-tariff barriers were quantified, and the numbers still didn't match any standard measures of trade barriers. [7]
The USTR (US Trade Representative) website lists actual trade barriers by country, none of which correspond to the chart's numbers. [10]
The White House "reciprocal tariff" chart contained fabricated data. The numbers were not actual tariff rates from any recognized source. They were calculated using a formula (deficit/imports) that has no relationship to tariffs. Real WTO tariff data shows rates dramatically lower than those claimed. The chart was used to justify tariffs based on invented numbers, not actual trade policy.