VERDICT: FALSE
In August 2025, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. terminated $500 million in mRNA vaccine research funding, claiming the vaccines "fail to protect effectively." This claim is FALSE. mRNA COVID vaccines demonstrated 94-95% efficacy in clinical trials and saved an estimated 14.4 million lives globally in 2021 alone. The HHS "evidence" was a bibliography compiled by a dentist, not immunologists or virologists, from a book titled "TOXIC SHOT" with a foreword by Senator Ron Johnson.
On August 6, 2025, the Department of Health and Human Services under Secretary Kennedy announced the termination of approximately $500 million in grants and contracts supporting mRNA vaccine development. Kennedy justified the cuts by claiming mRNA vaccines "cause more harm than benefit" and "fail to protect effectively against respiratory pathogens."
Leading epidemiologists immediately condemned the decision. Dr. Michael Osterholm of CIDRAP called Kennedy's claims "simply not true," citing extensive data showing major reductions in illness, hospitalizations, and deaths. Dr. Peter Hotez characterized the HHS announcement as "an exercise in disinformation."
This report examines the scientific evidence, Kennedy's history of vaccine misinformation, the flawed "evidence" HHS used to justify the decision, and the policy implications.
The Claim: mRNA Vaccines "Fail to Protect"
In August 2025, HHS Secretary Kennedy announced the termination of mRNA vaccine research funding with this statement:
"After reviewing the science and consulting top experts at NIH and FDA, HHS has determined that mRNA technology poses more risk than benefits against these respiratory viruses... mRNA vaccines fail to protect effectively against respiratory pathogens."
What the Experts Actually Say
Kennedy's claims were immediately rejected by leading infectious disease experts:
Dr. Michael Osterholm (CIDRAP, University of Minnesota)
"That's simply not true. There is ample data that shows major reductions in illness, hospitalizations, and deaths from mRNA vaccines. The evidence is overwhelming." [7]
Dr. Peter Hotez (Baylor College of Medicine)
"This HHS announcement is an exercise in disinformation. Secretary Kennedy is using his position to spread the same debunked anti-vaccine claims he has promoted for decades." [4]
Dr. Paul Offit (Children's Hospital of Philadelphia)
"The mRNA vaccines prevented millions of deaths. To claim otherwise is to ignore the largest body of real-world evidence we have ever assembled for any vaccine." [2]
| Kennedy's Claim | Scientific Evidence | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| mRNA vaccines "fail to protect effectively" | 94-95% efficacy in Phase 3 trials; 14.4M lives saved | FALSE |
| mRNA vaccines "cause more harm than benefit" | Benefits vastly outweigh rare adverse events per CDC/FDA | FALSE |
| COVID vaccine is "deadliest vaccine ever made" | No causal link to excess deaths; VAERS reports are unverified | FALSE |
| mRNA vaccines cause "serious harm, including death" | Myocarditis risk is real but rare (1-5 per 100,000); COVID itself has higher myocarditis risk | MISLEADING |
The Scientific Record: mRNA Vaccines Work
The efficacy of mRNA COVID vaccines is among the most extensively documented in medical history:
Clinical Trial Results
- Pfizer-BioNTech: 95% efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19 in Phase 3 trial (43,548 participants) [8]
- Moderna: 94.1% efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19 in Phase 3 trial (30,420 participants) [9]
Real-World Impact
A comprehensive study published in The Lancet estimated that COVID-19 vaccines prevented 14.4 million deaths globally in 2021 alone - the first year of widespread vaccination. [10]
According to Nature Medicine, vaccination reduced COVID-19 mortality by:
- 63% in the United States
- 89% in Israel (early high vaccination rate)
- 75% across the European Union
What HHS Used: A bibliography of approximately 750 articles
Who Compiled It: A dentist, not an immunologist, virologist, or epidemiologist
Source: The book "TOXIC SHOT" with a foreword by Senator Ron Johnson
Critical Flaw: The vast majority of the ~750 articles cited are about harms from COVID infection itself, not vaccines. The bibliography conflates infection symptoms with vaccine side effects. [17]
The "TOXIC SHOT" Bibliography Problem
An analysis by The Washington Post found critical flaws in the HHS-cited bibliography:
- ~65% of articles describe harms from COVID-19 infection, not vaccination
- ~20% are opinion pieces, letters to the editor, or non-peer-reviewed preprints
- ~10% are irrelevant to mRNA vaccines (discussing other vaccine types or unrelated topics)
- Only ~5% contain peer-reviewed research on mRNA vaccine adverse events - and even these do not support the claim that vaccines "cause more harm than benefit"
Kennedy's History of Vaccine Misinformation
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has been a prominent figure in the anti-vaccine movement for decades:
Vaccine-Autism Claims (Debunked)
Kennedy has repeatedly claimed vaccines cause autism, despite the claim being thoroughly debunked by:
- The original 1998 Wakefield study being retracted for fraud
- 17 subsequent studies finding no link between vaccines and autism
- The CDC, WHO, American Academy of Pediatrics, and every major medical organization rejecting the claim
2021: "Deadliest Vaccine Ever Made"
In 2021, Kennedy falsely claimed the COVID vaccine was "the deadliest vaccine ever made." This claim was rated FALSE by Reuters, FactCheck.org, and PolitiFact. The claim relied on misunderstanding VAERS data, which accepts unverified reports and explicitly states reports do not establish causation. [14]
Kennedy appointed Dr. Retsef Levi to the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP). Levi has publicly claimed that mRNA vaccines cause "serious harm, including death."
When asked if he agreed with Levi's statement, Kennedy replied: "Yes."
This claim is MISLEADING. While rare adverse events like myocarditis do occur (1-5 per 100,000 doses), the CDC and FDA have consistently found that the benefits of vaccination far outweigh the risks for all age groups. [11]
Policy Impact: September 2025 Senate Testimony
In September 2025, Kennedy testified before the Senate HELP Committee, repeating his claims about mRNA vaccine inefficacy. PolitiFact rated his testimony as containing multiple false statements. [6]
Funding Terminated
As a result of Kennedy's policy decisions, the following programs lost funding:
- $300 million in pandemic preparedness grants for mRNA platform development
- $150 million in contracts with Moderna for variant-specific boosters
- $50 million in NIH grants for mRNA research into other diseases (cancer, HIV)
The defunding of mRNA vaccine research has immediate public health implications:
- Pandemic preparedness: mRNA technology allows rapid vaccine development against novel pathogens (COVID vaccines were developed in 11 months vs. traditional 10-15 years)
- Cancer treatment: mRNA vaccines are in clinical trials for melanoma, pancreatic cancer, and other malignancies
- Global health: The U.S. was the leader in mRNA technology; defunding cedes ground to China and Europe
- H5N1 bird flu: As avian influenza spreads in U.S. dairy herds, mRNA offers the fastest path to a pandemic vaccine
Conclusion
HHS Secretary Kennedy's claim that mRNA vaccines "fail to protect effectively" is FALSE.
The scientific record demonstrates:
- mRNA COVID vaccines achieved 94-95% efficacy in rigorous clinical trials
- Vaccination saved an estimated 14.4 million lives globally in 2021
- Real-world data from hundreds of millions of doses confirms safety and effectiveness
- The HHS "evidence" was a bibliography compiled by a dentist, primarily citing harms from COVID infection, not vaccination
Kennedy's decision to terminate $500 million in mRNA research funding was based on false claims that have been repeatedly debunked by the scientific community. Leading epidemiologists have characterized the HHS announcement as "an exercise in disinformation" that will be "measured in lives lost during times of crisis."
For accurate information on COVID-19 vaccines, consult the CDC Vaccine Information page.