Executive Summary
"Immigrants are bringing unprecedented levels of crime to America. We're seeing an immigrant crime wave."
Decades of research consistently shows immigrants commit crimes at significantly lower rates than US-born citizens. Stanford research found immigrants are 30% less likely to be incarcerated than US-born whites. National crime rates have dropped 30.8% since peaking in the 1980s, and violent crime fell 10.3% between 2023-2024.
The Real Crime Trends
Historical Context: Crime Has Fallen Dramatically
The claim of an "immigrant crime wave" contradicts decades of Bureau of Justice Statistics data. Violent crime rates in the United States peaked in the early 1990s and have declined 30.8% since then, according to the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS).
Most recently, violent crime fell 10.3% from 2023 to 2024, and property crime dropped an additional 1.4%, per FBI Uniform Crime Reporting data. This sustained decline has occurred during a period of significant immigration increases, directly contradicting claims that immigration drives crime.
Immigrants Commit Fewer Crimes Than US-Born Citizens
A landmark 2020 Stanford University study published in PNAS analyzed incarceration data across all 50 states and found that immigrants are 30% less likely to be incarcerated than US-born white Americans. The study concluded: "Our results provide no evidence that immigration increases crime at the state level."
This finding is echoed by the American Immigration Council, which notes that "immigrants are less likely to commit crimes than native-born Americans, and areas with higher concentrations of immigrants have lower crime rates."
Key Statistics
Expert Consensus
Northeastern University criminologist James Alan Fox states: "There is no evidence of an immigration-driven crime surge. The data simply doesn't support that narrative. Crime rates have been declining for decades, including during periods of high immigration."
Debunked Viral Claims
Springfield, Ohio: "Pets Being Eaten"
In 2024, viral claims circulated that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio were eating residents' pets. Politifact investigated and rated this claim FALSE. Springfield city officials, local police, and the Ohio Department of Natural Resources found zero evidence to support these allegations.
Springfield City Manager Bryan Heck stated: "In response to recent rumors alleging criminal activity by the immigrant population in our city, we wish to clarify that there have been no credible reports or specific claims of pets being harmed, injured or abused by individuals within the immigrant community."
Aurora, Colorado: "Apartment Building Takeover"
Claims that Venezuelan gangs had "taken over" entire apartment complexes in Aurora, Colorado were debunked by AP fact-checkers. Aurora Police Chief Todd Chamberlain stated: "This is not an immigration issue. This is a crime issue involving a small number of individuals at specific properties."
The Aurora Police Department confirmed that while there were criminal incidents at specific properties, the characterization of gang "takeovers" was grossly exaggerated and not representative of the broader immigrant community.
Misinformation Pattern
These debunked claims follow a consistent pattern: isolated incidents or complete fabrications are amplified on social media, then cited as evidence of broader immigrant criminality despite lacking factual basis. Local officials consistently refute these narratives when investigated.
Academic Research Consensus
The academic consensus on immigration and crime is remarkably consistent across decades of research:
Brennan Center for Justice
Research from the Brennan Center concluded: "For more than a century, innumerable studies have confirmed two simple yet powerful truths about the relationship between immigration and crime: immigrants are less likely to commit serious crimes or be behind bars than the native-born, and high rates of immigration are associated with lower rates of violent crime and property crime."
Cato Institute Analysis
The libertarian Cato Institute's comprehensive review of immigration and crime data found: "Illegal immigrants have lower incarceration rates than native-born Americans in every demographic category we examined. The available evidence does not support the claim that illegal immigration increases crime."
This cross-ideological consensus—from progressive to libertarian research institutions—underscores the robustness of the evidence: immigration does not increase crime rates.
Why The Misconception Persists
Despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, the belief that immigrants increase crime remains persistent. Researchers identify several contributing factors:
1. Selective Media Coverage
Crimes committed by immigrants receive disproportionate media attention compared to crimes by US-born citizens. This availability bias creates a false perception of higher immigrant crime rates.
2. Conflation of Legal and Illegal Immigration
Rhetoric often conflates unauthorized border crossings (a civil violation) with violent crime, creating misleading associations. The American Immigration Council notes this conflation has intensified in recent years.
3. Political Amplification
Political campaigns frequently emphasize anecdotal immigrant crime stories while ignoring statistical evidence. This creates what criminologists call "moral panic"—widespread fear disconnected from actual risk levels.
The "Immigrant Paradox"
Sociologists refer to immigrants' lower crime rates as the "immigrant paradox"—despite often facing economic hardship and limited resources (factors typically associated with higher crime), immigrants commit fewer crimes than native-born populations. Researchers attribute this to stronger family networks, community ties, and motivation to avoid legal trouble that could jeopardize immigration status.
Final Verdict
Claims of an "immigrant crime wave" are demonstrably false. Research consistently shows immigrants commit crimes at lower rates than US-born citizens. National crime has declined 30.8% since its 1980s peak, with violent crime dropping 10.3% from 2023-2024. Viral anecdotes about pets in Springfield and gang takeovers in Aurora have been debunked. The data is clear: immigration does not increase crime.