Executive Summary
"I mean, eggs — but everything else is falling rapidly."
Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that more grocery items increased in price than decreased in recent months. While overall inflation has moderated, grocery prices remain significantly elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels. FactCheck.org and CNN both rated this claim as false.
The Data Analysis
What Trump Said
During a speech on December 17, 2025, President Donald Trump acknowledged that egg prices were high but claimed that "everything else is falling rapidly." This statement was made in the context of discussing inflation and cost-of-living concerns.
What the Data Shows
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (CPI), this claim is demonstrably false. In November 2025, the most recent month with complete data, more grocery categories saw price increases than decreases. While the rate of inflation has moderated compared to 2022's peak, prices themselves remain elevated.
FactCheck.org's analysis examined BLS data across major food categories. From January 2025 to November 2025:
Notably, the overall food-at-home index increased 2.4% year-over-year as of November 2025. This is not "falling rapidly" — it's still rising, albeit more slowly than during the 2022 inflation spike when food prices increased by over 10% annually.
The Egg Price Exception
Trump correctly noted that egg prices are exceptionally high. According to the USDA's December 17, 2025 report, egg prices surged by approximately 54% year-over-year in November 2025. However, this is due to a specific supply shock, not general deflation of other items.
Avian Flu Outbreak
The CDC reports that a highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza outbreak decimated U.S. egg-laying flocks in late 2024 and 2025. Over 40 million birds were culled or died from the disease, causing a severe supply shortage. This is a disease-driven supply crisis, not an indicator of broader economic deflation.
The egg price spike is an outlier, not evidence that other grocery prices are falling. In fact, the comparison Trump made — eggs versus "everything else" — is misleading because it implies the high egg prices are an exception to a general trend of falling prices, when the opposite is true: eggs are the exception to a general trend of continuing increases.
Inflation vs. Price Levels: A Critical Distinction
A common source of confusion in discussions about grocery prices is the difference between inflation (the rate of price increases) and price levels (the actual cost of goods). When officials say "inflation is coming down," they mean prices are rising more slowly — not that prices are falling.
Understanding the Math
If groceries cost $100 in January 2021, and inflation ran at 10% in 2022, they cost $110. If inflation then "moderates" to 2% in 2025, those groceries now cost $112.20 — not back to $100. Prices have not fallen; they've simply stopped rising as quickly. According to Reuters, cumulative food price increases since 2020 exceed 25%.
Trump's claim that prices are "falling rapidly" would require deflation — a sustained decrease in price levels. The BLS historical data shows no such trend. Some individual items have experienced temporary price decreases (such as certain produce items due to harvest conditions), but the overall trajectory is still upward.
Expert Analysis
Multiple fact-checking organizations and economic analysts have weighed in on Trump's claim:
FactCheck.org
"The data does not support the claim that grocery prices are falling rapidly. In fact, BLS data shows the opposite: the majority of food categories continue to see year-over-year increases."
CNN Fact Check Team
"This is false. While inflation has moderated, grocery prices remain substantially higher than they were before the pandemic, and most categories are still experiencing increases, not decreases."
The Wall Street Journal's economic analysis notes that while wholesale commodity prices have stabilized in some categories, retail grocery prices typically lag behind commodity trends and have shown "sticky" behavior — meaning they're slow to come down even when input costs decrease.
Verdict
President Trump's claim that grocery prices are "falling rapidly" (except for eggs) is demonstrably false. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that more grocery categories increased than decreased in the most recent reporting period. While the rate of inflation has moderated, prices themselves remain significantly elevated compared to 2020 levels. The high egg prices are due to an avian flu outbreak, not general deflation.