MISLEADING
Claims comparing D.C.'s murder rate to other cities use cherry-picked data that ignores historical context. D.C. violent crime hit a 30-year low in 2024-2025 according to the DOJ. Per-capita comparisons with smaller cities are methodologically flawed, and 2024 saw a 25% decline in homicides from the 2023 spike.
Throughout 2025, various claims portrayed Washington D.C. as among the most dangerous cities in America, often comparing it unfavorably to other U.S. cities or even foreign countries. These comparisons employed several misleading techniques: cherry-picking specific years (often 2023, which saw a post-pandemic spike), using per-capita rates that disadvantage smaller populations, and ignoring that D.C.'s violent crime rate hit a 30-year low in late 2024. While D.C. does have higher crime rates than many suburbs, the dramatic framing misrepresents actual trends and statistical reality.
The "Murder Capital" Myth
In the early 1990s, Washington D.C. earned the grim moniker "Murder Capital of America" with 479 homicides in 1991 [2]. However, claims in 2025 that D.C. remains at or near those levels are demonstrably false. The DOJ announced in late 2024 that D.C. violent crime had reached a 30-year low [4].
The 2024 homicide count of 174 represents a 25% decrease from 2023's spike of 232 and is less than half the 1991 peak [10]. While any murder is tragic, the data shows consistent improvement, not the crisis narrative being promoted.
The Per-Capita Manipulation
A common misleading technique involves using per-capita murder rates that make D.C. appear worse than larger cities. FactCheck.org noted that comparing D.C. (population ~690,000) to entire states or major metro areas produces skewed results [1].
Criminologists at the Urban Institute explain that per-capita rates can be misleading for smaller jurisdictions because a handful of additional incidents causes dramatic rate changes [13]. Comparing D.C.'s rate to the entire state of Texas or California conflates vastly different geographic and demographic contexts.
Cherry-Picking 2023
Many viral claims specifically cite 2023 data, which represented a post-pandemic spike seen in many American cities [9]. This spike followed the broader national pattern documented by the Council on Criminal Justice, which showed violent crime increasing from 2020-2023 before declining sharply in 2024 [8].
By selectively using 2023 numbers while ignoring the 25% decline in 2024, these claims present an outdated and misleading picture. The FBI's 2024 statistics confirmed the national downward trend applies to D.C. as well [3].
Statistical Context: What the Data Actually Shows
According to PolitiFact's analysis, D.C.'s 2024 murder rate of approximately 25 per 100,000 residents places it below St. Louis (69.4), Baltimore (51.1), and New Orleans (40.6) [14]. While still higher than the national average of 5.7, it represents a significant improvement from the 1990s peak rate of over 80 per 100,000.
The Bureau of Justice Statistics notes that comparing crime rates requires accounting for reporting differences, population density, and socioeconomic factors that simple rankings ignore [7].
The Political Exploitation
Claims about D.C. crime rates intensified in 2025 as justification for federal intervention. However, PBS fact-checkers noted that the administration's characterization of D.C. as uniquely dangerous contradicted DOJ's own data showing improvements [5].
CNN's analysis found that claims about D.C. crime often omitted that the city had already implemented successful violence intervention programs that contributed to the 2024 decline [6].
Conclusion: Misleading But Not Entirely False
Washington D.C. does have higher crime rates than many American cities and suburbs. However, claims that it is the "most dangerous" or experiencing unprecedented violence are misleading. The data shows D.C. at a 30-year low for violent crime, with significant improvements from both the 1990s peak and the 2023 post-pandemic spike.
Proper statistical analysis requires comparing similar jurisdictions, accounting for population differences, and using current rather than outdated data. The dramatic claims about D.C. crime fail on all three counts.